Of course to make a profit you do have to able to sell your product for more than it costs to produce don’t you?

With Motley Fool describing iGas as a “ticking time bomb” and reporting that “based on its current forecasts it is projected to breach certain of its bond covenants in the second half of 2016” things are not looking too healthy for our fracking friends are they?

DECC’s public attitude tracker has now reached Wave 17.

Results from polling in March show that more people were opposed (31%) to fracking than supported it (19%).
This continues the trend that we have seen since the question was first asked in Wave 8 (December 201) as you can see in this graph which must make very worrying reading for those who are trying to push fracking onto unwilling local communities

The differential between supporters and opposers has never been greater and the direction of travel does not favour the pro-frackers.We still have some way to go before we see a repeat of the US Gallup poll which showed more than 50% opposition but looking at that graph it can only be a matter of time.

This was made clear as long ago as 2011 in an article in the Guardian

This week it seems they nibbled a bit more off AJ Lucas (and by extension the Bowland Shale)

“Kerogen, the Company’s largest shareholder, has committed to subscribe for its pro rata entitlement ($11.1 million) and to sub-underwrite $2.9 million in total to support the Entitlement Offer. Kerogen has agreed that the Underwriter may allocate to it the first $2.5 million of any shortfall from the Entitlement Offer1.”

Hmm …

China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) -> Kerogen -> AJ Lucas -> Cuadrilla

China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) -> Nexen -> Igas

Shouldn’t we be sitting up and taking more notice of what is going on here?

How long are we going to sit back and watch our UK assets being gobbled up by Chinese backed corporations, whilst the pro-frackers bleat about fracking being in our national interest?

I guess AJ Lucas would have taken the cash from anywhere, given that their offer was under-subscribed, but do we as a country really have to be so naive and undiscriminating?

If shale really *were*  part of a strategic future for UK PLC would the government be quite so ready to mortgage a national asset to our friends in Beijing? I doubt it, but if you have any doubts about our government’s intentions here have a read of the announcement made on the day I published this post:

The list for Tuesday includes the following pro-speakers

James Rudd – NSG Environmental
Michael Roberts – Retired Vicar and general fractivist
Stuart Livesey – Delta Imperial Credit
Jim Harrison – Builder and smallholding owner
Nick Campbell – Inspired Energy
Frank McLaughlin – Retired Commercial Director
Clare Smith – Stay Blackpool

The list for Thursday includes the following pro-speakers

Devon Platt – Geology Student
Paul Linderman – Paul Linderman Lettings
Tony Raynor – Abbey Telecom

Which one of the nine is the odd one out and why?

The answer is international jet-setter Devon Platt as he is the only speaker who does not have (as far as we can tell) a clear and documented connection to the discredited North West Energy Task Force.

Lined up against these industry apologists will be 99 passionate local residents.

Cuadrilla seem as far away from having a social licence to operate as they ever have been.

You can read about it here where it describes

a “golden opportunity” for the NHS to help town planners promote health and keep people living independently.

“As these new neighbourhoods and towns are built, we’ll kick ourselves if in 10 years’ time we look back having missed the opportunity to ‘design out’ the obesogenic environment, and ‘design in’ health and wellbeing,” he said.

“We want children to have places where they want to play with friends and can safely walk or cycle to school – rather than just exercising their fingers on video games.”

No mention of the health impacts that fracking just down the road might bring then?

Baroness Farrington of Ribbleton Labour

My Lords, I declare an interest as a Lancashire resident. Will the Minister care to take away and reflect on the fact that there is great concern and anger at government suggestions that local people should be taken out of the decision-making process for future fracking? Will he care to comment on the fact that all the fracking decisions this Government have taken tend towards the north? Does he envisage any fracking taking place for oil or gas in the south of England, where Conservative support is concentrated?

Lord Bourne of Aberystwyth The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Wales, Lord in Waiting (HM Household) (Whip)

My Lords, the noble Baroness will be aware that decisions on fracking are taken by planning authorities; they are not a matter for the Government. She will be aware that there are potential fracking areas throughout the country. That, of course, will be something that planning authorities will take forward.

Yes – he actually said “decisions on fracking are taken by planning authorities; they are not a matter for the Government.”

I wonder if he’d be kind enough to explain that to Greg Clark?

We heard today that  Cuadrilla have a hospitality suite inside the football club so presumably have a range of refreshments available to them. However, apparently the public had to go outside to a cafe and check out at two different locations inside the building (and check back in at two locations) and then they were not allowed to bring any drinks back inside. Preferential treatment? Surely not!

Apparently a complaint was made that this was not a reasonable arrangement  and they will now be providing full refreshments for all tomorrow. There were questions raised about the suitability of the arrangements for the disabled. Wheelchair users  had to be wheeled out of the room, down the lift and round outside to the back of the building to the cafe to get a drink – and then they were not even allowed to bring them inside inside! There was a short cut through the hospitality suite but that’s where Cuadrilla were  so they we are told that they were refused access.

Here’s how Ellie Rylands describes their plight

“22 year old Ellie Rylands, one of the organisers, says it’s time that people saw shale gas enjoys support not just from businesses, but also from ordinary members of the community: “Until now, whenever shale gas has been discussed, all we’ve heard are the opinions of the industry and businesses on one side, and anti-fracking campaigners on the other.  But there are lots of people in the middle that believe shale gas can be extracted safely in this country, and can see how it could create a massive jobs boost for the area, especially for young people like me emerging from college and university.”

Did Ellie mention that her Linked In profile shows that she was actually employed by Cuadrilla and Centrica last year?

So Ellie is clearly just a “resident”  in the middle of this bewildering battle and not part of what she, herself, describes as “the industry and businesses on one side“. Or maybe not. By the way if anyone isn’t sure about the link between the North West Energy Task Force and Cuadrilla, Ellie makes it quite explicit there. She is one link between NWETF, Cuadrilla and Backing Fracking.

Anyway – we already know from their last outing that Backing Fracking’s most vocal supporters and spokespeople are overwhelmingly made up of business people who stand to gain financially if fracking goes ahead.  Quotes were given to the media last time they appeared at Blackpool Football Club by Phil Wilson of Tutis Concepts, James Mansell of Clear Solutions International Ltd from Shropshire and Tim Freshney of WJF Technical Support. All business directors whose business either already get business from Cuadrilla or might presumably expect to if fracking goes ahead.

But still Backing Fracking claims to represent ordinary “residents“, and not those with vested interests. This is how they describe themselves on their Facebook page.

How does this claim stack up in reality?

Well, I am fortunate enough that local people share information with me, and clearly not everyone they think is “backing fracking” actually is.

I was amused to learn that a schoolboy error in a recent mailshot, headed “It’s now or never!” (yes it is by the way LOL) and begging 131 supporters to attend their rally at Blackpool Football Club on 9th , meant that they put all of the email addresses in the “CC” field and not the “BC” field. That really was rather amateur of them, and I imagine some of the addressees may have been none too pleased about it. It’s also a bit embarrassing for a group which seems to have a lot of security company directors as its leaders and spokesmen to have proved so dilatory in their handling of such sensitive information isn’t it?

As a result the addresses were all available to everyone who received the email. From there it wasn’t hard to identify many of those on the list and the results are very interesting.

Working with Preston New Road Action Group, we were able to identify 77 of the 131 from their email addresses using a bit of Google sleuthing where necessary. I won’t identify any individuals by name here, but we have separated people into categories as best as we could.

• PR Pros – we identified 4 people who work in PR for companies like Cuadrilla, PPS, and 2 other PR companies
• North West Energy Task Force/ NW Lancs Chamber of Commerce – we identified 10 who were either NWETF panellists or NWLCoC officers. (We already know that NWETF has its admin and communications provided by Westbourne Communications, and the NW Lancs CoC and Cuadrilla have been hand in glove for some time now)
• NWETF advocates – we identified 8 emails belonging to people who appear to work for companies that allow themselves to be listed as NWETF “advocates” – some of the 2nd category, above,  also intersect with this group of course.

At this point we invite you to pause and to consider just what right this group has to claim that it is made up of ordinary “residents” and not Ellie’s “industry and businesses on one side“.

• Other Businesses – we identified 27 individuals who we believe work for other businesses that could benefit from shale gas being allowed in the UK – 14 of these seem to work for just 3 companies. (Clear Solutions International, UB Services and Inspired Energy)
• Public People – we identified 9 people who are in public positions like being executives at local colleges, local councillors, officers at Lancashire sports clubs, or who run organisations that have received funding from Cuadrilla. Not exactly Ellie’s “people in the middle”.

Maybe pause again for a bit more reflection on those claims of Ellie’s here?

• Students – We identified a group of 9 people including Ellie Rylands (see above) who all seem to have a connection with Geophysics or Geology courses at the same University in Yorkshire. We also identified one individual who we believe to be one of Ellie’s relatives who we have added into this section.
• Old Friends – We identified 10 individuals (from around the UK and further afield) who are notable fracktivists on social media like Facebook and Twitter. Between them these people provide most of the content for the Backing Fracking and FORGE Facebook pages and many other pro-fracking social media channels on Facebook and Twitter.
• Unknowns – there were just 54 of the 131 email addresses (41%)  that did not lend themselves readily to identification  although we are still working on them. Some of them may eventually be slotted into the categories above, and we think we’ve recognised a handful as people we know to be opposed to fracking – one of whom was kind enough to furnish us with the list we are now analysing.

This means that nearly two thirds of those on the Backing Fracking mailing list can hardly be reasonably described as what their Facebook page calls “residents” and Ellie calls “people in the middle“. (We are ALL residents somewhere of course, but their inference is clear.)

If Backing Fracking think that our analysis above is in any way  inaccurate we’d be happy to sit down with Rob Peters and go through the list with him. If he has any corrections for us we’ll then update this page accordingly.

Given that their rally at Blackpool Football Club today, February 9th, has only received a passing mention in one local newspaper

and it has not been mentioned on any of their social media sites, which we do monitor carefully,  I think it is fair to assume that anyone attending is doing so as a result of their “It’s now or never” email sent last week to the email list we are discussing here.

Backing Fracking themselves confirmed this last night, when they tweeted that they hadn’t invited  “people from all over the UK” (although we know from their emails that that was in fact a blatant lie, as that is precisely what they did in two emails headed “Plans for Tuesday 9th February 2016” and “It’s now or never!”)

Frankly I think it is shameful that Backing Fracking should try to pull the wool over the the media’s eyes like this. It may of course be that they are honest today and admit that they are really a group of businessmen with vested interests, a gaggle of geology students, a motley crew of drilling operatives, security guard wannabes and a few obsessive old age pensioners with too much time on their hands.

If not then I sincerely hope that the Inspector won’t have been taken in by any claimed show of “support” from “residents” or “people in the middle” on Seasiders Way. We opponents of fracking certainly aren’t!

Their attempts to construct a bit of local support to get Cuadrilla that elusive “social licence to operate” don’t seem to be working very well do they? In the words of Backing Fracking on his own Facebook Page on Monday night “What a rotten bunch…”

POST SCRIPT

Yesterday Backing Fracking’s main media spokesman was a company director called Chris Evans who runs a company called Cee Cee Tv Systems from his home near St Annes.

Chris’s Linked In profile shows

Would it be too much of a stretch of the imagination to wonder whether Mr Evans can see any of the 22 jobs promised in Arup’s environmental statement coming the way of his “One Stop Full Security Solution“, now that Cuadrilla appear to have disavowed Tutis Concepts , whose director spoke out for Backing Fracking in December.

When asked about any connection between Cuadrilla and Tutis Concepts on the Victoria Derbyshire show yesterday, Cuadrilla were quick to claim that it “no longer works with the security company mentioned in that film” . There’s nothing like loyalty  is there? If anyone spots any Tutis Concepts Security guards at BFC this month do let us know! We were under the impression that they were  Cuadrilla’s preferred supplier under their cosy arrangement with the North West Chamber of Commerce until we heard that.

Assuming Cuadrilla were being totally straightforward with Victoria Derbyshire, I wonder what soured their relationship?

POST POST SCRIPT

Predictably (and they are so predictable) Backing Fracking were not very happy to learn that they had a mole, and even less happy to have their membership analysed as above. As a result whoever runs the Backing Fracking Facebook page has decided that attack is the best form of defence and is devoting far to much time for the good of  his or her own mental health on launching attacks on Refracktion and me personally. Take a look – it’s great fun Here is today’s instalment

What is so hilarious about this is that you could not ask for a clearer illustration of the fact that whatever shill is behind this account has no local connection or understanding of local history. He clearly doesn’t realise that Lytham Quays is actually visible from my front bedroom, and he has no idea what happened back in 2005 when more than 90% of those voting in a referendum organised by the Lytham St Annes Express opposed the scheme (which was why I complained about the ludicrous quote made by Kensington developments in the Telegraph article).

Trying to bluster his way out of his or her idiocy on Twitter this afternoon we have seen Backing Fracking

• claim that a house in Lytham is not in Lytham
• insinuate that the LSE allowed their poll to be manipulated
• claim that the population of Lytham actually lives in St Annes on Sea

it is hard to see how this person could demonstrate a greater disconnection with local residents if he or she deliberately set out to do it!

QED I think

Back in 2012 we raised a series of issues with the Advertising Standards Authority regarding a leaflet sent out to local residents by Cuadrilla. Several of our complaints were upheld in the ruling of 2013 including one which stated

Cuadrilla uses proven, safe technologies to explore for and recover natural gas

The ASA duly adjudicated that

On this point, the claim “Cuadrilla uses proven, safe technologies to explore for and recover natural gas” breached CAP Code (Edition 12) rules 3.1 (Misleading advertising), 3.7 (Substantiation) and 3.11 (Exaggeration).

We were disappointed a couple of months later to have to report that Cuadrilla used almost exactly the same phrase in a Press Release.

Cuadrilla Resources uses proven, safe technologies to explore for and recover natural gas reserves

We did raise this with the ASA but they wriggled out of having to take any politically awkward action by saying:

“as it’s a press release (which is not considered advertising) we can’t take action”

It was disappointing that Cuadrilla took such a cynical attitude to the censure that they received from the ASA, but we supposed that readers would draw their own conclusions about what this says about the company, and perhaps the industry as a whole.

Imagine out surprise though when last night it was pointed out to us that Cuadrilla are making exactly the same claim on a website called http://www.shalegaslancashire.co.uk/

We think this is taking cynicism to a totally unacceptable level and would ask Francis Egan to explain why he feel able to throw the ASA’s ruling back in its face in this way. If he responds we will be happy to publish his answer here. There can be no doubt that these words are Cuadrilla’s own as the footer on the page states:

What is more concerning perhaps though is the involvement of two other bodies in making this claim – the logos of the East Lancs Chamber of Commerce and the North West Lancs Chamber of Commerce are  clearly visible on the page, and although Cuadrilla claim the copyright on all of the page content, the web site is actually registered by these two bodies.

Backing Fracking (more on them later) pointed out to us that this link between the Chambers and Cuadrilla was made public last year at http://www.lancashirebusinessview.co.uk/lancashire-chambers-join-forces-create-shale-gas-portal-50922/

This doesn’t change the fact that these Chambers will not be able to claim to offer any form of independent opinion at the enquiry which opens on 9th February.

Given the fact that local Chambers of Commerce are frequently in receipt of tax payer funding, it might seem reasonable to assume that you and I are, directly or indirectly, funding the promotion of Cuadrilla Resources’ interests by Chambers of Commerce who appear quite happy to put their names to questionable statements that have previously been censured by the ASA.

If this is not the case maybe someone from one of the Chambers can clarify the situation for us?

The text of the letter is reproduced below.

This letter is important from a variety of perspectives, but most immediately it raises some very difficult questions for the Government with regard to the forthcoming public hearing into Cuadrilla’s appeal against Lancashire County Council ‘s refusal to allow their planning permission at Roseacre Wood and Preston New Road.

The government has removed the power of decision making from the inspector who will now only be able to make a recommendation to the minister for Communities & Local Government who is one of the signatories of this letter. In December 2015 Lancashire County Council passed a motion to request the Prime Minister not to allow Mr Clark to be involved with the decision “because of clear evidence of pre- determination“.

The release of this letter shows that this motion was not merely justified but was prescient and, if anything, an understatement.

It would be unthinkable that any decision now taken by Mr Clark in favour of Cuadrilla’s application could be seen as anything but “pre-determined” and it would become abundantly clear that this government has no intention of letting matters as inconsequential as local democracy get in the way of its pet projects.

What the impact of this will be is hard to quantify, but it is beyond doubt that the existence of this letter would open the way for a judicial review of any positive outcome to the enquiry for Cuadrilla on the grounds of pre-determination. It also signals to the local electorate that they are held in contempt at a Cabinet level by the Government and demonstrate very clearly that well-behaved protest from the ballot box as far as civil disobedience is effectively useless in the face of such concerted attacks from central government. Again we  imagine that the existence of this letter, and its obvious implications, might legitimise some borderline actions like lock-ons in the eyes of the judiciary.

Without a doubt the government is very close to seeing this whole venture blow up in its face. It remains to be seen how long the pressure still has to build.

OFFICIAL – SENSITIVE

From:
The Rt Hon Amber Rudd MP Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change
The Rt Hon Greg Clark MP Secretary of State for Communities & Local Government
TheRt Hon Liz Truss MP Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

7 July 2015

To: The Rt Hon George Osborne MP Chancellor of the Exchequer

Dear George,
You asked us to develop a joint plan to develop the shale gas sector in the UK, building on the work that has already been done in the last Parliament.  This letter proposes an ambitious strategy to enable the first exploration wells, demonstrate the safety and potential of the sector. and ultimately move to production. We propose to make a joint statement this summer to set out the Government’s agenda. Our objectives are stretching, but we propose setting the bar high to drive our ambition.

Objectives for our approach to this development

We propose these stretching Government objectives for the UK shale sector.

• Within two years – exploration under way and first few sites hydraulic fracturing;
• Within five years – production underway from the first converted sites (assuming the gas flows and is commercially recoverable):
• Within ten years – a maturing shale gas production industry

Their delivery will depend on favourable geology and investor sentiment. underpinned by strong, clear and consistent support from government at national and local levels.

Shale gas strategy

Alongside geology and investment, the biggest challenge we face is to foster a climate of opinion in which the development of our shale resources is seen as safe and acceptable to a majority of the public, nationally and locally. i.e. communities likely to be directly affected. Other new industries and technologies, such as mobile telecommunications, faced similar challenges in the past and were able to reassure the public We must now do so with shale. Government has to be united using the levers it can control, and bringing in others to support our policy where we are not in control.This will be a challenging balance given public misgivings. It will be important that we can demonstrate that shale can be developed safely, so this will be a key feature of our communications strategy. We need to focus on:

• developing a clear and persuasive narrative which demonstrates any the potential that shale represents is so important to our future energy security and can be done safely on the way to a low carbon future energy mix  and thus merits our support, to be published in the form of a Ministerial statement this summer;
• building on this, the development and implementation of an ambitious, cross-Government programme of communications and outreach to influence key opinion formers, decision makers and civic leaders, including media opportunities for Ministers. a suite of information and materials for the public;
• a clear assessment of the barriers industry faces and what more Government may be able to do to mitigate them, bearing in mind met this may entail father regulation;
• the usability and integrity of the regulatory systems, including the planning system, which together set the parameters for shale development. This includes an early announcement to improve the timescales under the current planning system and going forward consideration of moving shale into national planning;
• the development of a sovereign wealth fund (working with HMT), building on the industry’s existing community benefits offer, to ensure that there is a strong local and regional dividend for hosting this nationally significant industry.

We will also ensure that we harness all areas of policy delivery across Government which can support our ambitions in shale, in the year ahead. The thinking about city and county deals is a good, recent example of this.

One of the hurdles to overcome to develop a more favourable public attitude is that nobody in the UK has seen or experienced a shale fracking operation in their area, aside from the limited operations at Preese Hall, abandoned in 2011. We need some exploration wells, to clearly demonstrate that shale exploration can be done cleanly and safely here. So we must put our immediate efforts into securing some early wins in exploration.

In this regard, as experiences in Lancashire have shown, it is vital that we reach a position where mineral planning authorities feel able to take sound planning decisions within appropriate timescales and at an appropriate cost.

With this in mind, we have identified a package of measures to speed up planning for shale and are already testing the scope to support shale through city and county deals. Our officials continue to work together and with industry to understand the barriers facing emerging shale exploration projects.

We will continue to work with the regulators to improve the experience for operators, building on existing positive developments such as the Environment Agency‘s ‘one stop shop’ permitting centre, its readiness to conduct pre-application discussions with operators and its well-received drop-in sessions for local residents. Enhanced local engagement by the independent regulators, enabled this year by the additional Autumn Statement funding, is key to social acceptance and we ask that you look to roll this funding forward in future years in order to maintain the benefits.

We will also need to prepare for our five year objective, and the evolution of an exploration sector into a nascent production sector. We propose to start work later this year to develop comprehensive scenarios for what a production stage industry might look like, including the need for further regulatory development as the industry progresses ( e.g. a single regulator for shale if needed).
As well as improving the current planning system. it is important that we have a long-term approach to planning which is suitable for handling the large number of applications that would be seen in a full production stage: We are therefore minded to bring commercial shale production within the Nationally Significant Infrastructure Planning regime. and to be ready to begin the move from early 2018 for large scale applications. However. we need to think carefully about whether to slow this approach until a number of exploration sites are under way in order to avoid delaying current and prospective exploration applications or undermining public support for exploration sites.
Annex A sets out an outline plan, addressing the points in your letter and some additional actions.

Proposed Government announcement

We support a Government announcement on shale gas policy this summer and propose to make a joint statement to begin a concerted campaign of national engagement. We see great value in articulating the need for shale gas, in particular for security of supply, followed by the economic benefits that come from hosting a new industry. The statement must also show how the regulatory framework protects people and the environment and set out actions to support timely decisions on planning applications. capitalising on the Autumn Statement funding, including the designation of mineral planning authorities as under-performing where they are persistently slow. and prioritising appeals and call-ins. It would conclude by explaining the accompanying national and local economic benefit. This could be followed by a second announcement in the autumn, tied to the 14” licensing round allocations. focused on the community benefits, Sovereign Wealth Fund and a potential refreshed industry charter.

Annex B sets out an outline narrative.

Our Departments will progress this work as a high priority, working with you and your officials. as well as colleagues at No 10. to realise the potential of this important sector.

Yours sincerely,

Amber Rudd, Greg Clark, Liz Truss